I do not deny climate change. It's real. However, before anyone gets angry at the title and dismisses this as "climate change denial" please read it to better understand that the causes include BOTH human impact and increased solar activity in recent decades. Science always updates our knowledge based on new studies, as new facts coming to light. If we are to resolve the issue, we first must understand the cause, which is not just one thing, but several. We cannot deny new science! ~PB
A iceberg floats in the sea near Qeqertarsuaq, Disko Island, Greenland, on July 21, 2011.
(AP Photo/Brennan Linsley)
Comments
September 24, 2019
Updated: September 25, 2019
Share
Commentary
Political and corporate leaders gathered for the climate week in New York City have urged significant action to fight
global warming. But, given the high costs of the suggested solutions, could it be that the suggested cure is worse than the disease?
As a
liberal who grew up in a solar house, I have always been
energy-conscious and inclined toward activist solutions to
environmental issues. I was therefore extremely surprised when my
research as an astrophysicist led me to the conclusion that climate
change is more complicated than we are led to believe. The disease is
much more benign, and a simple palliative solution lies in front of our
eyes.
To begin with, the story we hear in the
media, that most 20th-century warming is anthropogenic, that the
climate is very sensitive to changes in CO2, and that future warming
will, therefore, be large and will happen very soon, simply isn’t
supported by any direct evidence, only a shaky line of circular
reasoning. We “know” that humans must have caused some warming, we see
warming, we don’t know of anything else that could have caused the
warming, so it adds up.
However, there is no calculation based on
first principles that leads to a large warming by CO2—none. Mind you,
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports state that
doubling CO2 will increase the temperatures by anywhere from 1.5 degrees
to 4.5 degrees C, a huge range of uncertainty that dates back to the
Charney committee from 1979.
In fact, there is no evidence on any
time scale showing that CO2 variations or other changes to the energy
budget cause large temperature variations. There is, however, evidence
to the contrary. Tenfold variations in CO2 over the past half-billion
years have no correlation whatsoever with temperature; likewise, the
climate response to large volcanic eruptions such as Krakatoa.
Both
examples lead to the inescapable upper limit of 1.5 degrees C per CO2
doubling—much more modest than the sensitive IPCC climate
models predict. However, the large sensitivity of the latter is required
in order to explain 20th-century warming, or so it is erroneously
thought.
In 2008, I showed, using various data
sets that span as much as a century, that the amount of heat going into
the oceans, in sync with the 11-year solar cycle, is an order of
magnitude larger than the relatively small effect expected simply from
changes in the total solar output. Namely, solar activity variations
translate into large changes in the so-called radiative forcing on the
climate.
Since
solar activity significantly increased over the 20th century, a
significant fraction of the warming should be then attributed to the
sun, and because the overall change in the radiative forcing due to CO2
and solar activity is much larger, climate sensitivity should be on the
low side (about 1 to 1.5 degrees C per CO2 doubling).
In
the decade following the publication of the above, not only was the
paper uncontested, more data, this time from satellites, confirmed the
large variations associated with solar activity. In light of this hard
data, it should be evident by now that a large part of the warming isn’t
human, and that future warming from any given emission scenario will be
much smaller.
Alas, because the climate
community developed a blind spot to any evidence that should raise a red
flag, such as the aforementioned examples or the much smaller
tropospheric warming over the past two decades than models predicted,
the rest of the public sees a very distorted view of climate change—a
shaky scientific picture that is full of inconsistencies became one of
certain calamity.
With this public mindset, phenomena such as that
of child activist Greta Thunberg are no surprise. Most bothersome,
however, is that this mindset has compromised the ability to convey
the science to the public.
One example from the past month is my
interview with Forbes. A few hours after the article was posted online,
it was removed by the editors “for failing to meet our editorial
standards.” The fact that it’s become politically incorrect to have any
scientific discussion has led the public to accept the
pseudo-argumentation supporting the catastrophic scenarios.
Evidence
for warming doesn’t tell us what caused the warming, and any time
someone has to appeal to the so-called 97 percent consensus, he or she
is doing so because his or her scientific arguments aren’t
strong enough. Science isn’t a democracy.
Whether
the Western world will overcome this ongoing hysteria in the near
future, it’s clear that on a time scale of a decade or two, it would be a
thing of the past. Not only will there be growing inconsistencies
between model and data, a much-stronger force will change the rules of
the game.
Once China realizes it can’t rely on coal anymore,
it will start investing heavily in nuclear power to supply its
remarkably increasing energy needs, at which point, the West won’t fall
behind. We will then have cheap and clean energy-producing
carbon-neutral fuel, and even cheap fertilizers that will make the
recently troubling slash-and-burn agriculture redundant.
The West
would then realize that global warming never was and never will be a
serious problem. In the meantime, the extra CO2 in the atmosphere would
even increase agriculture yields, as it has been found to do in arid
regions in particular. It is plant food after all.
Professor Nir Shaviv @nshaviv is the chairman of the Racah Institute of Physics at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/about-us